The Union government on Thursday ruled out any hike in the price of petroleum products till June 15.
The wide-ranging sanctions imposed by the US on the Russian oil sector have started to dent near-term oil flows to India with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) saying not enough cargoes are available for March.
Exports contracted by 2.6 per cent to $34.47 billion in September even as the country's merchandise trade deficit narrows to $19.37 billion during the month under review, according to the government data released on Friday. Easing commodity prices helped in cutting down the country's import bill by 15 per cent to $53.84 billion in September, the 10th consecutive month of decline. During April-September this fiscal, exports contracted by 8.77 per cent to $211.4 billion.
The escalation of conflict in the West Asian region is expected to push already high logistics costs besides hurting trade in sectors such as oil, electronics and agriculture, according to exporters. They said that insurance costs for exports to the countries directly involved in the war could also go up, which will impact Indian exporters' working capital. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the conflict is already hurting India's trade with countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
India's exports contracted 12.2 per cent to $34.48 billion in December 2022, mainly due to global headwinds, and the trade deficit widened to $23.76 billion during the same period, according to official data released on Monday. Imports in December 2022 also declined 3.5 per cent to $58.24 billion as against $60.33 billion in the year-ago period. In December 2021, exports stood at $39.27 billion and the trade deficit was at $21.06 billion.
Exports to India's key markets - the US, the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, Bangladesh and Germany - witnessed a sharp decline, resulting in a 12.69 per cent contraction in outbound shipments during the first month of the current financial year, commerce department data showed. India's biggest export market - the US - with 17 per cent share witnessed 17.16 per cent contraction at $5.9 billion in April. This was followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that saw 22.09 per cent decline at $2.23 billion exports.
India's merchandise exports spurted to a record high of $418 billion in the 2021-22 fiscal on higher shipments of petroleum products, engineering goods, gem and jewellery and chemicals, according to official data released on Sunday. Outbound shipments touched an all-time high of $40 billion in a month in March 2022, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal told reporters. Exports stood at $34 billion in March 2021.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has decided to cut its daily oil production by about 2 million barrels. OPEC's daily output target is 27.3 million barrels.
The country's exports rose by about 6 per cent to a "record" $447 billion during 2022-23 on account of healthy growth in the outbound shipments of sectors such as petroleum, pharma and chemicals and marine, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday. The country's imports also grew by 16.5 per cent to $714 billion in 2022-23 as against $613 billion in 2021-22. He said that the exports of goods and services together scaled "new heights" and has increased by 14 per cent to $770 billion in 2022-23 as against 676 billion in 2021-22.
OPEC, which has oil reserves that constitute 80 percent of the total global reserves, is unwilling to increase output to bring down oil prices. This makes OPEC too responsible for the rising oil prices, apart from the weak dollar. OPEC has said that world oil demand this year is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels daily to an average of 87 million barrels per day. As OPEC's output remains insufficient to cover rising demand from Asian region, oil prices will tend to rise.
Oil prices could reach $100 per barrel if there were "dramatic" developments in the Gulf or elsewhere, a leading oil official has said.
The Third OPEC Summit on its closing day on Sunday is likely to announce a fund, which will have contributions from energy consuming countries and oil producers, to provide technological support for reduction of the environmental impact of fuel use, OPEC officials said.
With crude oil flirting with the $100 a barrel mark, world's largest oil producer Saudi Arabia is emulating marketing savvy West to showcase oil cartel Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in a new light when it organises the third OPEC Summit in Riyadh this week.
The country's exports for the first time crossed the $400 billion mark in a fiscal on healthy performance by sectors such as petroleum products, engineering, gems and jewellery, and chemicals, according to the commerce ministry's data released on Wednesday. The merchandise exports rose by by 37 per cent to $400.8 billion in 2021-22 until March 21 against $292 billion in 2020-21. Previously, the outbound shipments had touched a record of $330.07 billion in 2018-19.
The country's exports rose by 23.69 per cent to $34.06 billion in January on healthy performance by engineering, petroleum and gems and jewellery segments even as trade deficit widened to $17.94 billion during the month, according to provisional data of the commerce ministry. Imports in January grew by 23.74 per cent to $52.01 billion, the data, released on Tuesday, showed. Trade deficit widened to $17.94 billion during the month as against $14.49 billion in the same month last year.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Economic recovery from the pandemic in the US has helped India achieve the $400-billion mark for exports for the first time in any fiscal year. According to the preliminary data compiled by the Department of Commerce, India exported goods worth $73 billion to the US from April 1 to March 21 - up 47 per cent, compared to last year. The US' share of exports, compared to total exports, stood at 18.2 per cent. The country is also India's largest trading partner and export destination.
India's demand for petroleum products like petrol and diesel will grow by 7.73 per cent in 2022, the fastest pace in the world, an OPEC report said. India's demand for oil products is projected to rise from 4.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 5.14 million bpd in 2022, OPEC said in its monthly oil report. The growth in demand is the fastest in the world ahead of 1.23 per cent of China, 3.39 per cent of the US and 4.62 per cent of Europe.
Export growth picked up mainly owing to rising global crude prices, which pushed up processed petroleum exports by nearly 40 per cent, apart from a broad-based improvement in exports of major foreign exchange earners such as engineering goods and gems and jewellery.
The reference case forecast takes into account the dire state of the world economy and expects global demand to fall by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009. It also does not foresee any further compliance by OPEC countries with the quota reductions announced last December. Dated Brent was expected to have average $45 per barrel in the first quarter, rising to $50.4 per barrel in the second and $51.8 per barrel in the third, then up to $53.4 per barrel.
Contracting for the third month in a row, India's exports declined by 8.8 per cent to $33.88 billion in February due to slowdown in global demand, even as the trade deficit touched about a year low of $17.43 billion during the month, according to official data released on Wednesday. Imports also declined by 8.21 per cent to $51.31 billion as against $55.9 billion recorded in the corresponding month last year. Cumulatively, however during April-February this fiscal, the country's overall merchandise exports rose by 7.5 per cent to $405.94 billion.
T N C Rajagopalan on the new year and new worries.
The Financial Times, London, reports that Nobuo Tanaka, the first Asian head of the International Energy Agency, has stated that the organisation must work more closely with the two Asian giants.
Global crude oil prices slipped below $45 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel decided not to cut production.
India's exports in January dipped by 6.58 per cent to $32.91 billion, as against $35.23 billion in the same month last year, according to the data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday. Trade deficit in January stood at $17.75 billion.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
The UAE will comply with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' directive to reduce its output by 1 million barrels a day, from the official quota of 28 million barrels, Minister of Energy Mohammed bin Dhaen Al Hameli said.
OPEC members are meeting at Vienna on Monday. Jason Feer of Argus Media thinks that the fear as to how far the oil prices could drop would be uppermost on the minds of the ministers meeting in Vienna.
'Selling could further intensify and take the index towards 22,800-22,750 in the near-term.'
Contrary to expectations, global oil prices, which have touched a 21-year high, are unlikely to fall substantially even if oil producer cartel OPEC raises production, industry officials said on Thursday.
The Netherlands has emerged as India's fifth-largest export destination in 2021-22 (FY22), jumping from its 10th position a year ago. Exports to the fifth-largest economy in the European Union (EU) bolted 94 per cent to $12.5 billion in the financial year ended March 31. In FY22, the Netherlands surpassed Hong Kong, Singapore, the UK, Germany, and Nepal to become India's largest export destination in the EU. Germany, which was earlier India's top European export destination (eighth position), has now dropped two ranks to 10th place.
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